On paper, House Democrats appear to have a much better shot at majority status in the state House than they do for the state Senate. Strangely, however, scuttlebutt among the political ‘chattering class’ indicates that House Republicans are in the driver’s seat for the majority whereas the Senate GOP’s chances to prevail are a ‘jump ball.’
This debate ensues after a perusal of data over the last four election cycles to determine “base party strength” in each of 110 state House of Representatives districts as created by the new Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission (MICRC).
Bottom line: Democrats seem to have an edge of 50%+1 in a whopping 63 House districts, Republicans in only 47. For the Senate, the numbers are much closer — 20 districts have a Democratic majority of 50%+1, with Republicans at 18. True, there are NINE districts in the state House where Democrats have a majority edge that is between 50%+1 and 51% and obviously could go either way in the Nov. 8 general election. And there are a very large number of districts (15) where the spread between one party having a majority and the other NOT having one is only 4% (48%-52%). If it’s a ‘red wave’ year and Republicans sweep all of those, or as few as 10, the GOP would once again attain control of the House. That could well happen.
It should also be pointed out that other psephologists — including the MICRC itself — have calculations that are more favorable to Republican base strength than the one compiled by The Ballenger Report that readers see here. The difference can be explained by the other bean-counters using factors that give greater weight to results in other contests, like the 2020 presidential race. The numbers you find below are the most favorable reading of Democrats’ chances in most districts that you will find anywhere.
There are a whopping 52 open seats — 30 with a Democratic base majority ranging from scant to huge, 22 where the Republicans seem to have a statistical advantage, from miniscule to hefty.
How is base party strength calculated, anyway? Most election experts have long considered the four education boards on the statewide ballot to be the most nearly foolproof yardstick for calculating a political party’s base in a given election, because they’re so far down on the bedsheet that a voter is likely to fall back on his or her fundamental partisan leanings in deciding whom to support. But the results of ed board races also can be influenced by other factors, such as name ID, the year in which the election occurs, national considerations, and candidates for other offices on the ticket. The figures below attempt to reflect that.
Below is a rundown in ranked order — never before published — of the current base party strength of each of the 110 new state House of Representatives districts as designed by the MICRC. All of these will be contested in the Nov. 8 general election. The table is based on data collected by Lansing-based Practical Political Consulting, Inc., and the Secretary of State’s elections division, and then dissected and reconstituted by The Ballenger Report.
The districts are ranked by the greatest Democratic strength on down to the least Democratic (most Republican) based on the vote for Dem candidates in a blend of races for the state Board of Education, Wayne State University Board of Governors, University of Michigan Board of Regents, and Michigan State University Board of Trustees over a span of four elections — 2014 through 2020. Results in the table are weighted slightly to favor the 2018 and 2020 elections compared with the previous two. Splinter party vote totals in the four elections (about 6.3%) have been thrown out:
Partisan Composition of New State House of Representatives Districts
Blend of Mean Democratic Educational Boards Vote
Over Four (4) General Elections (2014, ’16, ’18 and ’20)
District 9: Incumbent Democrat — Aiyash, Detroit (Democratic Base: 87.2%)
District 4: Incumbent Democrat — Whitsett, Detroit (Democratic Base: 85.8%)
District 1: Incumbent Democrat — T. Carter, Detroit (Democratic Base: 84.7%)
District 6 Incumbent Democrat — Weiss, Oak Park (Democratic Base: 80.4%)
District 7: Incumbent Democrat — H. Scott, Detroit (Democratic Base: 79.8%)
District 18: OPEN — Southfield (Democratic Base: 79.4%)
District 70: Incumbent Democrat: C. Neeley, Flint (Democratic Base: 79.0%)
District 5: OPEN — Detroit/SE Oakland Co. (Democratic Base: 77.1%)
District 32: OPEN — Ypsilanti (Democratic Base: 76.8%)
District 16: Incumbent Democrat: S. Young, Detroit (Democratic Base: 75.2%)
District 8: OPEN — Detroit/Madison Hgts (Democratic Base: 75.1%)
District 3: OPEN — Dearborn (Democratic Base: 74.9%)
District 33: Incumbent Democrat — Brabec, Ann Arbor (Democratic Base: 73.5%)
District 41: Incumbent Democrat — J. Rogers, Kalamazoo (Democratic Base: 72.6%)
District 82: OPEN — Grand Rapids (Democratic Base: 70.3%)
District 14: OPEN — Warren area (Democratic Base: 69.2%)
District 94: Incumbent Democrat — O’Neal, Saginaw (Democratic Base: 68.8%)
District 53: Incumbent Democrat — B. Carter, Pontiac (Democratic Base: 68.5%)
District 12: Incumbent Democrat — Steenland, Roseville (Democratic Base: 67.6%)
District 19: Incumbent Democrat — Steckloff, Farmingon Hills (Democratic Base:67.6)
District 17: Incumbent Democrat — Pohutsky, Livonia (Democratic Base: 67.5%)
District 74: Incumbent Democrat — K. Hope, Holt (Democratic Base: 67.3%)
District 26: OPEN — Inkster/Western Wayne Co. (Democratic Base: 66.8%)
District 10: Incumbent Democrat — Tate, Detroit (Democratic Base: 66.3%)
District 11: OPEN — NE Detroit/SE Macomb Co. (Democratic Base: 65.8%)
District 23: OPEN — Ann Arbor/Plymouth (Democratic Base: 64.4%)
District 13: Incumbent Democrat — Stone, Warren (Democratic Base: 64.0%)
District 15: OPEN — Dearborn/Dearborn Hgts (Democratic Base: 62.7%)
District 47: OPEN — Eastern Jackson Co./Western Washtenaw Co. (Democratic Base: 62.4%)
District 24: Incumbent Democrat — Puri, Canton (Democratic Base: 61.1%)
District 25: Incumbent Democrat — K. Coleman, Westland (Democratic Base: 60.7%)
District 77: OPEN — Lansing/Dewitt/Grand Ledge (Democratic Base: 60.5%)
District 75: OPEN — E. Lansing/NE Ingham Co. (Democratic Base: 60.2%)
District 87: OPEN — Muskegon (Democratic Base: 59.7%)
District 20 : OPEN — W. Bloomfield (Democratic Base: 59.5%)
District 69: OPEN — NW Genesee Co. (Democratic Base: 59.4%)
District 2: Incumbent Democrat — T. Liberati, Allen Park (Democratic Base: 59.3%)
District 56: OPEN — Troy area (Democratic Base: 56.9%)
District 39: Incumbent Democrat — Morse, Kalamazoo (Democratic Base: 56.2%)
District 21 Incumbent Democrat — Breen, Novi (Democratic Base: 56.2%)
District 80: OPEN — SE Grand Rapids & Kent Co. suburbs (Democratic Base: 55.2%)
District 73: Incumbent Democrat — Brixie, Okemos (Democratic Base: 54.1%)
District 31: OPEN — Monroe Co./SE Washtenaw Co. (Democratic Base: 53.7%)
District 81: Incumbent Democrat — R. Hood, Grand Rapids (Democratic Base: 53.5%)
District 48: OPEN — Livingston/NW Washtenaw Co. (Democratic Base: 53.4%)
District 109: OPEN — Marquette/North Central U.P. (Democratic Base: 52.5%)
District 38: OPEN — SW Michigan Shoreline (Democratic Base: 52.3%)
District 83: OPEN — Wyoming (Democratic Base: 52.2%)
District 61: OPEN — Mt. Clemens/Clinton Twp (Democratic Base: 52.2%)
District 22: Incumbent Democrat — Koleszar, Plymouth (Democratic Base: 51.9%)
District 84: Incumbent Democrat (Glanville, Walker) — (Democratic Base: 51.8%)
District 28: OPEN — South Downriver Wayne Co. (Democratic Base: 51.8%)
District 27: OPEN — Downriver Wayne Co. (Democratic Base: 51.3%)
District 76: Incumbent Democrat — Witwer, Delta Twp (Democratic Base: 51.2%)
District 103: Incumbent Republican — O’Malley, Lake Ann (Democratic Base: 50.9%)
District 68: Incumbent Republican — Martin, Davison (Democratic Base: 50.7%)
District 55: Incumbent Republican — Tisdel, Rochester Hills (Democratic Base: 50.7%)
District 29: Incumbent Democrat — Garza, Taylor (Democratic Base: 50.6%)
District 44: Incumbent Democrat — Haadsma, Battle Creek (Democratic Base: 50.5%)
District 46: OPEN — Eastern Jackson Co./Western Washtenaw Co. (Democratic Base: 50.5%)
District 57: OPEN — Eastern Oakland/NW Macomb Co. (Democratic Base: 50.5%)
District 54: OPEN — NE Oakland Co./Bloomfield Hills (Democratic Base: 50.2%)
District 58: Incumbent Democrat — Shannon, Sterling Heights (Democratic Base: 50.1%)
District 96: Incumbent Republican — Beson, Bay City (Democratic Base: 48.9%)
District 72: Incumbent Republican — Mueller, Linden (Democratic Base: 47.8%)
District 49: Incumbent Republican — Bollin, Brighton (Democratic Base: 47.5%)
District 62: OPEN — Clinton & Harrison Twps/Fraser (Democratic Base: 46.8%)
District 86: OPEN — Holland (Democratic Base: 46.1%)
District 92: OPEN — Isabella & Northern Gratiot Co. (Democratic Base: 46.1%)
District 42: Incumbent Republican — Hall, Marshall (Democratic Base: 46.0%)
District 88: Incumbent Republican — Van Woerkom, Norton Shores (Democratic Base: 45.0%)
District 52: Incumbent Republican — M. Harris, Clarkston (Democratic Base: 44.3%)
District 67: Incumbent Republican — P. Green, Millington (Democratic Base: 44.2%)
District 60: OPEN — Clinton & Macomb Twps (Democratic Base: 43.6%)
District 64: Incumbent Republicans — Beeler, Fort Gratiot/Eisen, St. Clair Twp (Democratic Base; 43.3%)
District 107: OPEN — Cross-Straits of Mackinac/Sault Ste. Marie/Petoskey (Democratic Base: 43.2%)
District 95: OPEN — Midland (Democratic Base: 42.7%)
District 51: Incumbent Republican — Maddock, Milford (Democratic Base: 42.7%)
District 71: OPEN — Shiawassee Co.+ (Democratic Base: 42.6%)
District 30: OPEN — Monroe Co. (Democratic Base: 42.5%)
District 102: OPEN — Ludington south to Muskegon (Democratic Base: 42.2%)
District 34: OPEN — Lenawee Co. (Democratic Base: 41.9%)
District 110: Incumbent Republican — Markkanen, Hancock (Democratic Base 41.9%)
District 37: Incumbent Republican — Wendzel, Coloma (Democratic Base: 41.4%)
District 39: Incumbent Republican — Paquette, Niles (Democratic Base: 40.8%)
District 90: Incumbent Republican — B. Posthumus, Greenville (Democrat9c Base: 40.6%)
District 93: Incumbent Republican — Filler, Ovid (Democratic Base: 39.6%)
District 63: OPEN — St. Clair/Chesterfield Twp/Algonac (Democratic Base: 39.6%)
District 59: Incumbent Republican — Mekoski, Shelby Twp (Democratic Base: 39.0%)
District 104: Incumbent Republican — Roth, Interlochen (Democratic Base:38.9%)
District 108: OPEN — Six Eastern U.P. Counties (Democratic Base: 38.9%)
District 97: Incumbent Republican — Wakeman, Saginaw (Democratic Base: 38.8%)
District 50: Incumbent Republican — Bezotte, Howell (Democratic Base: 38.1%)
District 66: OPEN — NE Oakland/NW Macomb Co. (Democratic Base: 37.8%)
District 36: Incumbent Republican — Carra, Three Rivers (Democratic Base: 37.2%)
District 78: OPEN — Barry Co/NW Eaton Co. (Democratic Base: 36.6%)
District 106: OPEN — NE Lower Peninsula/Alpena (Democratic Base 36.4%)
District 45: Incumbent Republican — Lightner, Springport (Democratic Base: 36.2%)
District 99: OPEN — W. Branch/Gladwin area (Democratic Base: 36.2%)
District 100: OPEN — Clare/Big Rapids/Central LP (Democratic Base: 35.3%)
District 79: OPEN — South suburban Kent. Co. (Democratic Base: 35.3%)
District 89: Incumbent Republican — Meerman, Saginaw (Democratic Base: 35.2%)
District 91: Incumbent Republican — P. Outman, Six Lakes (Democratic Base: 35.2%)
District 105: Incumbent Republican — Borton, Gaylord (Democratic Base: 34.4%)
District 65: OPEN — Northern Macomb Co. (Democratic Base: 34.2%)
District 101 OPEN — Cadillac/Newaygo Co. (Democratic Base: 33,5%)
District 43: OPEN — Allegan Co. (Democratic Base: 32.6%)
District 35: Incumbent Republican — Fink, Hillsdale (Democratic Base: 30.5%)
District 98: OPEN — Thumb area (Democratic Base: 30.4%)
District 85: Incumbent Republican — Slagh, Zeeland (Democratic Base: 30.3%)
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Good job Bill!
Good analysis! Considering that the younger voters are even more brainwashed than the previous cohort, I would say that down the road, we are so screwed….
I will be voting in the primary election as well as the general, but I won’t be surprised if voting numbers
across the state drop. Too many people have lost faith in either party. I, for one, am among the disenchanted when it comes to political leaders who lack both character and courage. As for the Republican Party…as long as it remains the ” Party of Trump,” I doubt I will vote for even one. It’s a very messy and sad scene in the world of governance today, and I see little hope for quality leadership. Care to comment, Mr. Ballenger?