State Senate Democrats are buried in a minority so feeble (Republicans hold a 27-11 edge) that it’s hard to imagine it could get any worse. To be sure, everybody thought the same thing leading up to the 2014 general election, when the Senate GOP surprised us all by winning all the key contests and thereby […]
Campaign 2018: Are Changes Likely in Michigan Senate?
Campaign 2018: Can Michigan Dems Gain Members in U.S. House?
Michigan Democrats have been able to score a net gain in their representation in the state’s U.S. House of Representatives delegation only once in the past two decades.. That was in 2008, when Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) and Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Twp) knocked off a pair of Republican incumbents in the Barack Obama landslide. Schauer […]
Four Michigan CDs on National ‘Rising Trump’ List
Four Michigan Congressional districts are among some three dozen throughout the nation that showed the biggest shift from Democrat to Republican at the presidential level between 2012 and 2016. In other words, these four districts (out of a national total of 435) showed the biggest move away from Democrat Barack Obama in 2012 toward Republican […]
Michiganders in Congress: Just as Old, but Weaker
The average age of Members of the current 115th Congress is among the highest in the entire history of the United States. And if the rest of the nation was in sync with the Michigan delegation, it would be even older. The average age of 14 U.S. House Members from Michigan is 61.2. In the […]
Michigan Lookin’ Good, Compared with New York State
The 21st Century hasn’t been kind to Michigan. We were the only state other than Rhode Island to actually lose population during the first decade, even though we’ve started to creep back up at an anemic pace. Unemployment is down and private sector jobs are up from where they were during the darkest days of […]
GERRYMANDERING THE HOUSE, 1972-2016
The high bar Democrats need to clear in order to win back the majority By Theodore S. Arrington Editor’s note: This is an updated version of a story previously published in June 2015 in Sabato’s Crystal Ball Redistricting the U.S. House of Representatives is not a unified, national process, unlike most national legislatures. Rather, it’s the […]
An Irish Take on America’s Election
Tiny Ireland has produced more great writers per capita than any country in the world — think Joyce, Shaw, Wilde, Yeats, O’Casey, Synge, and Seamus Heaney, to name a few. Most of these were poets and playwrights. Not so well known are Irish political theorists, but there have been several, like the 18th century giants […]
Federal Court: Wisconsin Has Too Many Republicans
If a court can rule the Wisconsin state legislature does not have enough Democrats, it takes voting power away from the citizenry. A federal district court is attempting to nullify the results of the last four elections in Wisconsin by declaring that the state legislature does not have enough Democrats. “Political gerrymandering” by the Republican-controlled […]
Countdown on Wisconsin Redistricting Controversy
Less than a week remains before a court-imposed deadline for Democrats and Republicans to present responses to each others’ initial briefs on how to remedy what a three-judge federal panel says is an unconstitutional gerrymander of Wisconsin’s Congressional and legislative districts. Depending on what happens in Wisconsin, there could be ramifications in other states, including […]