Question 1): The Michigan Republican Party’s 35th Biennial Mackinac Leadership Conference wrapped up a week ago. GOP state Chairman Jim RUNESTAD (R-White Lake) reported that 1,250 people paid for credentials to this year’s policy conference, a significant improvement from two years ago when attendance was scant. Former Chair Kristina KARAMO nearly bankrupted the party at the 2023 Mackinac, a debacle that contributed to her dismissal as chair in early 2024.
The big question is: Has this iconic event been restored to its former glory as a significant run-up to the next election?
Answer 1): No, but it appears to have climbed halfway out of the abyss into which it had descended. Runestad and his predecessor Pete Hoekstra have clearly done yeoman work in resurrecting the reputation and confidence of the GOP over the past year and a half. Attendance was vastly improved from 2023 and lots of state leaders were there, but more rehabilitation needs to be done to get the party back to pre-Karamo status.
Founded in 1957 by then-state Republican Chairman Larry Lindemer and held every two years ever since, the conclave in its prime drew presidential candidates and presidents themselves (George H.W. Bush and Gerald Ford), not to mention national GOP chairmen, prominent cabinet officials and U.S. Senators and Congressional leaders (Howard Baker, Newt Gingrich and Tom DeLay were just a few), as well as national media.
Despite Runestad’s claims, the Grand Hotel, where most of the conference is centered, was not filled to capacity as it always used to be. That meant that the dazzling, jam-packed Saturday and Sunday breakfasts, lunches and dinners in the main dining room flanking the world-famous front porch— replete with marching waiters and speeches by governors like George Romney, Bill Milliken, and John Engler, emceed by the redoubtable L. Brooks Patterson — could not be held there. Why not? Because post-Musser, out-of-state ownership had to allow non-conference room occupants to dine there, since they were paying $1,200 a night (meals included), upwards of 60% more than the cost back in the good old days. All the talks — even by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, the lone big-name outside speaker Runested was able to lure — were held in side rooms like the so-called “Theater.” Attendance at Noem’s speech wasn’t any greater than at a reception held at the downtown Village Inn co-hosted by state House Majority Floor Leader Bryan Posthumus and Republican consultant/commentator Dennis Lennox. The Michigan GOP still has a long way to go in its recovery.
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Question 2): . Which political candidates left the island in a better position than they were in when they arrived? Which candidates are in worse shape now than they were when they arrived?
Answer 2): The big loser was gubernatorial candidate U.S. Rep. John JAMES (R-Shelby Township). He was a no-show at the gubernatorial forum, which became the talk of the Island, particularly since it was revealed that he passed on the exchange to make it to a mixed-martial arts event. It was little surprise that he finished a distant 4th (with less than 14% of the vote) in the party’s biennial straw poll of prospective gubernatorial nominees.
To critics of his commitment to the gubernatorial race, James tweeted last week that “In the past 48 hours, I’ve spoken with seven media outlets, local TV, radio and print. I’ve participated in three public and grassroots events in three cities on two peninsulas and still made time to take my three boys to church and call my mom on Sunday. Despite what the pundits say, know that I’ll be a governor who continues to work as hard as you do.” That won’t cut it with party leaders and regulars.
Otherwise, state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt has to feel good about finishing 1st in the party’s straw poll, with 29.2% of the vote. Runner-ups Tom Leonard, a former state House Speaker, and ex-Attorney General Mike Cox were close behind, with 23.5% and 18.5%, respectively. The survey was by no means scientific, but it’s worth noting that every qualified candidate who won it dating back to 2009 has gone on to win the GOP nomination.
Other than that, it’s noteworthy that there were no visible Supreme Court prospects on the Island. Oakland Co. businesswoman Monica YATOOMA raised her profile by winning the Secretary of State straw poll, and a better candidate, Macomb Co. Clerk Anthony (Tony) Forlini, a former state representative, impressed by drawing 15% as a write-in when he wasn’t even on the ballot and hadn’t announced his candidacy yet (he eventually did, this past week).
The two major Attorney General candidates — Eaton Co. Prosecuting Attorney Doug LLOYD and Birmingham lawyer Kevin KIJEWSKI — heightened their exposure. Kijewski won the straw poll, not a good sign if it means he’ll become the nominee — he can’t win a general election against the Democratic candidate. The better nominee, Lloyd, probably can’t either, but he’s gotten endorsements from 52 of his fellow county prosecutors, and if can get his party behind him and raise some campaign cash, he might manage a semi-respectable showing.
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Question 3): A real estate agent named Karla WAGNER has lit a fire under grassroots Republicans with her proposal to end property taxes, called AxMITax. Petitions are now in the field to put an initiative proposal on the 2026 statewide ballot. Wagner has even been talked into running for governor by her supporters. What’s the likely result of all this activity?
Answer 3): First, the petitioners need to do the work to qualify for the ballot. If they succeed, sure, there are a lot of voters who would like to lower or abolish their property taxes, but what would replace them to avoid a meltdown in government-provided services we all depend on? AxMITax offers nothing. A well-funded attack on this possible ballot proposal should prove that Michigan voters are smart enough to defeat it.
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Karla Wagner lit a fire under many of AxMITax activists in the wrong way:
(A) many were steamed that she cannot effectively lead the AxMITax initiative while simultaneously running for the governor’s seat;
(B) her gubernatorial candidacy lacks any sort of ability to raise finances to mount a serious run for governor – and such a candidacy may divert needed finances for the ballot initiative to achieve ballot status and be successful;
(C) activists had noted that in gathering ballot initiative signatures they were receiving very POSITIVE feedback from grassroots Democrats – particularly in Macomb County and other suburban areas of Metro Detroit that wanted to see this tax initiative on the ballot – but Wagner’s candidacy for GOP nomination for governor cast the ballot initiative as a right-wing effort – thus turning off potential Dem moderate support;
(D) she has absolutely ZERO government experience at any meaningful level.
There is a serious question whether Wagner’s ballot initiative can gather enough valid signatures to achieve ballot status.
In sum, the idea of running Wagner for a quixotic quest in the Republican race for governor was a bonehead notion that could and will likely backfire on the anti-tax initiative.
Yes!
“Bonehead” is not the word.
Very few GOP insiders have every even heard of the name of Karla Wagner – AND NOW SHE RUNS FOR GOVERNOR????
She has few qualifications to make a valid run for governor.
ANSWER 1) The effects of Karamo on the GOP are much like the effects of a major coronary attack immediately followed by a quadruple bypass. Recovery simply doesn’t happen overnight. It’s a slow, step-by-step process. Many thanks go to Pete Hoekstra who jumped in with both hands to sort out the bucket full of rusted fish hooks that Karamo left behind. Jim Runestad is continuing along the path needed to keep the GOP on course.
As mentioned, not being able to use the main dining room is due to an ownership change, rather than a previously dysfunctional GOP.
ANSWER 2) The sooner we quit hearing the name John James the better. Anyone who had the support of die-hard workers and MAGA donors who barely won a hotly contested congressional open seat race against a highly respected opponent, only to essentially tell them all to shove it four years later isn’t worthy of mention.
The straw poll is incomplete, as Kevin Rinke and Perry Johnson were not included. Keep in mind that the candidate of the GOP must be able to beat a soon-to-be former Detroit Mayor. Jocelyn Benson, the presumed front runner of the other major party, is insignificant.
The SOS & AG nominations are up for grabs, as there is no telling just what craziness the rank-and-file delegates will engage in. Their foolishness could once again turn those races into a White Elephant.
And, yes, it is especially unfortunate that any prospective MSC candidates were MIA.
ANSWER 3) Karla Wagner is running for Governor to highlight the AxMITax proposal. She’s aware she probably won’t be the nominee, but it’s a master stroke to gain attention for this long-needed proposal.
So where does the money come from to replace the lost property tax revenue? That’s an easy question to answer; it comes from the income tax, which can fluctuate, much like the Michigan economy.
Keep in mind that over 30 years ago the legislature voted to substantially change the way schools are funded, which led to the passage of Proposal A in 1994. There is no reason why we should not apply the same philosophy to the remaining property tax categories.
Agree on Congressman John James – he needs to seek re-election in the 10th District where his constituency has re-elected him previously and where he is respected over any other prospective Democratic nominee.
Democratic insiders are rallying around Christina Hines, a candidate who in 2024 stunned observers by pulling in over 200,000 votes in the general election for Macomb County Prosecutor against incumbent Republican Peter Lucido. While she lost, she made an excellent showing with only a fraction of the campaign funding Lucido had.
The MI-10 Congressional race is expected to be one of the most competitive in the nation in 2026 and GOP insiders are clamoring for John James to reconsider his decision to run for Michigan governor.
Proposal A was a massive 50% increase in the sales tax among many other taxes. AxeMiTax offers nothing but cuts and lies about maintaining local services.
AxeMiTax is not the same philosophy as Proposal A, at all.
Maybe learn how government works first, before you try to dismantle it.
Glad to see your high confidence that all candidates mentioned “can’t win”. Nice work.
I was intrigued by TBR’s failure to mention Amanda Love’s run for Secretary of State and her appearance at Mackinac.
Love made quite a splash.
John James needs to stay put and help preserve the slim GOP edge in Congress and Gary Peters needed to stay picked to help the Dems in the Senate (he could have stepped down in early 2027).
Bill’s column contains several factual errors that deserve correcting.
Contrary to his claim that “the Grand Hotel… was not filled to capacity,” the hotel was sold out three to four weeks before the event; rooms were unavailable unless someone relinquished them. In fact, the entire island was sold out weeks before the event.
What has changed since the Musser era is that non-conference guests who book rooms are permitted to dine in the main dining room unless a conference literally occupies every room in the hotel. Unless you have every single room reserved in advance of the conference, you cannot hold events in the dining room. That policy — not lack of interest — explains why meals and large addresses were held in the Theater rather than in the dining room.
Likewise, the suggestion that attendance at the big-name outside speech (and other major events) was weaker than a private reception downtown is patently and provably false. Kristi Noem’s address drew standing-room-only crowds with documented overflow; the porches and main public spaces were packed for the major events. Those facts are a matter of public record — and of film.
Reporters should avoid letting venue logistics masquerade as evidence of decline. The conference’s turnout and energy were strong; the record shows it.
Wow!
The indomitable chair of MIGOP has posted a rebuttal comment on the success of Mackinac.
It’s a win-win for all TBR readers when the Leader gives us clarification to Bill’s illustrious report, IN Bill’s report. I thank the Leader for the times he graces us. I can’t imagine a better successor to Amb Hoekstra’s position. I’m happy to say I lived in the Leader’s district (not for 2027) and enjoyed voting for him whenever given the chance. Oakland County still represents the epicenter of the Republican party in Michigan despite now a clear minority relative to the Democratic party. I grew up in a world when the Republicans were the majority, and it was wonderful. I wish Leader Runestad all the luck in the world to win back the Oakland County precincts lost over past decades due to neglect and mismanagement.
But Gee, I can’t help but imagine a Republican party that might eschew the POSH environment of the Grand Hotel, for a more common, if mundane, middle class setting like, oh say, the Novi Convention Center? In that way Republicans can perhaps peruse the landscape they must retake in order to come back from obscurity and irrelevancy . . .
Finally at 9 o’clock on Sunday night I had time to read this wonderful column. I thank you Bill and want you to know I enjoyed reading it.
I was there the whole weekend with my wife and we attended many of the events as well as three hours on the front porch on Friday.
We need to go onward and forward and thank you, Bill Ballenger
It was good to see you and Beth made it up to Mackinac!
Nice article, Bill. And it was good to see you on OTR.
Question 1: Yes, they do have a long way to go to bask in their former glory. But it is nothing that winning a few elections cannot fix. Methinks the donor class is still a wee bit irritated at the plebes and are hoping they can wait them out before the Democrats take away the things they truly care about.
QUESTION 2: I do not know Mr. James and have not met him. Watching him in action convinces me that he realizes he does not have the make up and demeanor of a legislator, and does not seem to like Washington, DC very much. He wants to be the lead singer in the band, not a voice in the chorus. He is someone who wants to be in charge. Running something. Here in Michigan. And right now, that is not going to be happening to him any time in the near future in the House or even the Senate. He seems to want to come home to be an executive, in charge of something. Giving orders. Except he is not working too hard at it. We’ve seen what happens to candidates who’ve done this before. Our “Quality Guru” or James Craig anyone? He has not learned from their mistakes. Yet.
QUESTION 3: The AxMITax proposal is the most bat crap crazy idea I have ever heard in Michigan politics. I have NEVER been THAT drunk to think that was a good idea. To be kind, her numbers don’t add up. Her appearance a while back on OTR was, to be polite, dreadful. Money to fund schools, cops, firefighters and other local services will not fall from Heaven like Manna. She is gambling that Michigan voters have all suffered a series of traumatic brain injuries that would qualify you for Social Security disability under Listing 12.02 and 12.05. And I am not talking about the lax and easy standards of the Listings during the administration under Bush the Younger, but the more restrictive versions of these Listings made effective on the last Friday of the Obama Administration. Hopefully, we will NOT see it on the November ballot. Our school scores – as recently reported in Bridge Magazine – suck enough as it is. We don’t need to make it any worse.
The Tigers have made the playoffs!!! Let’s hope their swoon is finally over.
TBR readers must forthwith take up a collection and buy Tim a $5,000 gift card to Founders Brewing Co.
THANKS!
Both SEMCOG and the Michigan Municipal League have set up websites to educate the public on the devastating effect they foresee on the operation of state, county and municipal governments due to the passage of the AxMITax ballot initiative.
AxMITax amounts to voodoo tax economics.
Many elected Republicans have gone on record to indicate that it will cause fiscal devastation to state county and local government programs.
It reminds me of the Tisch Amendment ballot initiative in 1978 that enjoyed wide initial popularity when it was approved for ballot status but suffered erosion in public support after a sound analysis was made by fiscal economic experts of the damage it would cause government operation by denying needed funding.
The Tisch Amendment ballot proposal went down to defeat in November of 1978.
I fail to see what qualifications Karla Wagner has to render any reasonable analysis of the adverse impact that many foresee from he ill-founded proposal to radically alter the property tax revenue stream that protects the efficient operation of our government system in the State of Michigan.
“…Money to fund schools, cops, firefighters and other local services will not fall from Heaven like Manna….”
It should be noted that Mississippi spends $ 12,394 per K-12 pupil on average with far better results than Michigan, which spends $ 16,208 per pupil. The Mississippi miracle has lifted their student’s reading performances far beyond Michigan’s students.
Perhaps raw government spending numbers are not good indicators of government performance?
But raw government spending numbers are good indicators of Big Bloated Bureaucracy!
I would prefer sending my kids to Mississippi public schools than Detroit Public Schools.
There are good and bad public school systems in the State of Michigan.
Bill, looking very dapper on OTR the other day. Definitely kicks it up a notch when you are on.
Wrt Q#1: Doesn’t matter. Pols shouldn’t be patronizing “glorious” events. They are supposed to be public servants. Presumption and Ostentation doesn’t become them unless they want, heaven forfend, to perpetuate the country club persona.
Wrt Q#2: Forget the candidates. The Republican party, and their adherents, were the big winners just getting back to the mainland without devolving into infighting and name calling. Didn’t hear of anybody uncloaking their shillelaghs to commence donnybrook-ing. Success!! Never heard of Yatooma, Forlini, Kijewski and Lloyd. Might sound like a law firm but they gotta have a whole lot more public recognition before they can be considered legitimate candidates.
wrt Q#3: Candidate Wagner sounds too much of a commonsense person to consider her candidacy any other than a marketing ploy to get some recognition of her proposal. I hope it sees the ballot. Republicans desperately need some out of the box thinking like this. I can easily think of a hundred other ways and places to cut than the property tax. They really are too high, but that is representative of a spending problem more than a taxing problem.
Royal steps up on the soap box:
As mentioned here by me and many other TBRers, Michigan’s K-12 school system when compared to Mississippi and literally any other state school system is none other than a profile in abject failure. If you really insist on subsidizing something, get on with increasing the rewarding of school choice . . . home, charter, private, parochial, religious . . . public should be last to the feed trough. Colleges and universities should be free . . . paid for by corporate scholarships. And given only to apprentice and journeymen after/while demonstrating proficiency in corporate experience. Citizens should not have to pay for public institutions that only a percentage of them gets to partake in. Also, the “bell shaped curve” grading system should be abolished. Learning should be broken into segments and students should get the privilege of repeating any intrinsic segment they don’t demonstrate proficiency.
Royal steps off the soap box . . .
Bill, you are the best . . . but I’ve said that before.
Contrary to the island event, isn’t this election more or less a lock for Dugan? A man who plans to show his true purple colors for the first time ever?
Michael Duggan has a fighting chance of being elected governor – but a lock? No.
Apparently, the Michigan government will continue to operate unimpeded after September 30th without any approved budget. Neither Democrats nor Republicans seem especially bothered by this constitutional breach.
Bill, well you certainly provided lucidity and historicity to OTR last might. Too bad the rest were too full of budget passing relief blather to let you talk more. Most wanted to prattle on about how it was done instead of what was done. and poor Mr Skubick didn’t focus the group enough.
Personally, I’m fairly impressed with the budget. Speaker Hall held out well. Not Reagan-esque, mind you, but quite well. Prob got 50% of what he wanted, not the 75% Reagan would have. I’m not really sure why Leader Nesbitt and Chair Runestad held out the way they did?! Does it really distinguish them from Duggan by doing so? Perhaps.
Wins:
1) Gas tax to roads makes sense
2) Ghost employees eliminated a plus
3) The Senate passed a budget (earmark) transparency resolution
4) Education shift from K-12 to higher ed (so it can be seen easier)
5) Education shift to lunches rather than retirements a clear plus
6) $1.5B overall reduction a good start
7) MEDC reduced
8) 24% tax on Marijuana gives crumbs to Whitmer’s demand for added funding where it belongs
A lot to like . . . esp TBR
I was traveling through Macomb County last week and was stunned to see an Anthony Forlini billboard on Groesbeck Highway. iI later learned that Former Secretary of State Candice Miller is endorsing Forlini in his quest for the seat of Secretary of State.
Forlini is a powerful GOP insider who served several terms in the Michigan House before being elected Macomb County Clerk. He ruffled feathers by declining to place Melissa Carone on the State House ballot due to failure to pay monies due to the Secretary of State. His aide in the Michigan House, Joseph Aragona, is currently sitting as a Michigan State Representative in the newly-drawn 60th House District.
Aragona himself has been mentioned as a possible candidate to succeed John James in the Michigan ‘s 10th U.S. Congressional House District.
Monica Yatooma is the first Chaldean-American to run for statewide office on a GOP ticket. Expect her to receive significant campaign funding to secure the nomination at the Republican Michigan State Convention.
Amanda Love is not mentioned in the TBR article but she finished ahead of Forlini in the straw poll. Love is the mother of five and and sits as a trustee on the Clarkston Board of Education. Love was in attendance at Mackinac.