A lot of races, many candidates, multiple polls, tons of speculation — but what are the ODDS (in horse racing parlance) of what will happen in the three weeks that are left of Campaign 2016, particularly as it relates to Michigan?
Back in July, The Ballenger Report established odds and correctly forecast that U.S. Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia would be Hillary Clinton’s choice to be her Vice Presidential running mate, and that Indiana Gov. Mike Pence would be Donald Trump’s choice to be his.
Headed towards Nov. 8, here is The Ballenger Report’s assessment of how things stand TODAY:
— Odds Clinton (D) will carry Michigan: 1-2 (67% likely)
— Odds Trump (R) will carry Michigan: 5-2 (28%)
— Odds Gary Johnson (L) will carry Michigan: 100-1 (1%)
— Odds Jill Stein (G) will carry Michigan: 500-1 (a fraction of 1%)
— Odds on Michigan’s U.S. House of Representatives Delegation Remaining 9R/5D: 4-5 (56%)
— Odds Michigan Democrats Will Gain At Least One U.S. House Seat: 5-4 (44%)
— Odds Republicans Will Maintain Control of Michigan House of Representatives: 2-3 (60%)
— Odds Democrats Will Gain Control of Michigan House of Representatives: 2-1 (33%)
— Odds Democrats and Republicans Will Wind Up in a “Shared Power” 55-55 tie in the Michigan
House of Representatives: 14-1 (7%)
— Odds Republicans Will Retain a 5-2 Majority on Michigan Supreme Court: 1-2 (67%)
— Odds Democrats Will Gain At Least One Seat on Michigan Supreme Court: 7-1 (15%)
— Odds Democrats Will Gain Two Seats & Outright Control of Supreme Court: 20-1 (5%)
— Odds on Democrats Sweeping All Eight Seats for U-M Board of Regents, MSU Board of Trustees,
Wayne State University Board of Governors &
State Board of Education: 1-2 (67%)
— Odds on Republicans Winning at least One Seat of the Eight from any one
of the Four Boards: 10-1 (10%)
— Odds on Democrats Winning a Majority of the Eight Ed Board Seats: 1-3 (75%)
— Odds on Republicans Winning a Majority of the Eight Ed Board seats: 25-1 (5%)
— Odds on a 4-4 R/D Tie in the Eight Ed Board Races (it’s never happened): 500-1 (less than 1%)
— Odds Democrats Will Gain At Least 20 Seats Statewide in County Board of Commissioners
Races: 2-3 (60%)
— Odds Democrats Will Make Gains in Countywide Elected Offices: 2-3 (60%)
— Odds Democrats Will Gain Township Offices (out of a total of some 6,500 statewide): 1-2 (67%)
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